Saturday, June 13, 2009

Marrow's Fieldwork Yields Results in 25th

25th HD District Map

Results from June 9th , 2009 Democratic Primary - 25th HoD

Greg Marrow's campaign fieldwork paid off. Results from the June 9th Democratic primary for the nomination of a candidate to run against Delegate Steve Landes for the 25th House of Delegates seat, show that where Marrow and his team focused their modest resources, they got statistically significant results.

Concentrated efforts in several Albermarle precincts, which have been historical supportive of Democrats, resulted in a nearly 80% vote for Marrow. This was followed closely by a 73% results in Waynesboro city, where Marrow's folks had a solid canvassing, phone banking and poll worker effort. Marrow won by narrower margins in Augusta and Rockingham Counties. Some precinct-by-precinct data parsing suggests that there was likely a bit of coin-flipping in the minds of some rural county voters, where results showed a nearly 50-50 split, appearing to be a random event rather than an informed choice. Where there was a significant effort to post yard signs for Marrow, those precincts went more strongly for Marrow.

While the percentage of active voter turn-out was only in the 3 to 7% range (actually pretty decent for a Va. primary), statistical sampling geeks like us, love the "data set". It gives us a little peek, statistically speaking, into the minds of voters - albeit Democratic ones. It does demonstrate that in our little corner of the Shenandoah Valley, hard work pays off.

Marrow's campaign has gained some valuable field experience and political intelligence on the opposition in the 25thHD battle-space, that bodes well for Marrow's looming head-on challenge of the entrenched incumbent Landes, who has had no Democratic challengers since taking office in 1996.

In 2009, difficult local economic conditions and palpable voter unrest -- should make for a spirited campaign in the 25th.

Dr. Greg Marrow interview with NBC29

cross-posted from Blue Ridge Data

1 comment:

Dan Joyce said...

I've met Greg a couple of times and I liked what I heard. Please support him! His website is