Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Poll - Deeds Surges

Public Policy Polling has their latest Virginia poll out. McDonnell 49%, Deeds 42%

Creigh Deeds has cut McDonnell's lead in half in less than a month and has moved to within 7 points. This poll was taken as McDonnell's radical rightwing beliefs were made public. Late polling interviews indicate a big break toward Deeds. Results here.

Other candidates:
Bolling 46%
Wagner 40%

Cuccinelli 48%
Shannon 35%

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

If Va has really turned blue as some people claim why are the top 3elections in Va being lead by at least 6% points by Republicans ? If the Republicans win all 3 i quess then you may have to admit its still red.

PJ said...

Good post RD. The foolish chauvenistic, anti-tolerant, white supremist, neo-christian attitude is EXACTLY what VA and the rest of America is moving away from in droves. We intelligent people have had enough of the regressive ignorance. I hope that this revelation about McDonnell's extremism bears fruit. It can only help VA move forward.

Belle Rose said...

McD spent all spring trying to look and sound like a moderate Dem while Creigh was in a primary battle. With all his image remaking, many voters still had doubts about McD and that's why Creigh is now gaining. And all this before the revelation about McD's far right beliefs. As the McD/Pat Robertson connection sinks in, the next polls will show a big change. Guess who is even farther to the right (if that's possible)--Cuccinelli. Bolling almost as bad. McD may well bring them down with him.

Anonymous said...

Obama in office will only help the Republican team win i sure HOPE he comes back to Va again.Va is ready for a CHANGE after Kaine.

PJ said...

Good point Belle Rose...is this the best that the GOP have? Academics have moved on from the extremist neo-CON movement. Its dead, sadly, everyone knows it but them. Va's GOPers remind me of the Japanese in the Pacific after WWII, who just refused to believe that their brainwashed glory days were done.

they have become desperate animals.

jeffkramerak said...

who knows what the deal is here...things have been crazy ever since the new year with politicians! They can't be trusted, PERIOD.

Anonymous said...

Deeds Surges? LOL. You hacks, you. For starters, there's no mention in this post that PPP is a Democrat-oriented firm. There's no mention of the big change in the sample versus their last poll (38D-31R & 35R-32D, respectively), which obviously can skew the results. There's no mention, even WITH that sample, of the huge advantage McDonnell commands among indies, even with polling included after his thesis was revealed. (Where are Obama's academic works, incidentally? Anyone?) There's no mention that Deeds' negatives are still higher than McD's, etc, etc.

And, there's no mention of the fact its only early Sept. and polling now, regardless, doesn't much matter. I know the WaPo has just begun its part for the Deeds camp, so I suspect in the end it'll be closer than even this suggests. But, the nat'l mood on Dems has soured, and I expect that to trickle down into VA as well.

Toni D. said...

Well well anon, someone's getting grumpy. Hit too close to a raw nerve? Keep in mind that you guys have until end of day Saturday to get a new candidate.
Hugs and kisses ;o)

Anonymous said...

Um, what? I'm simply amused at the spin, nothing more. Lots of inconvenient facts were left out of the post, and it was pretty egregious at that. Deeds Surge? Heh...yeah. That's why I love this site...such shameless hackery, yet you consider yourselves free thinkers. Its a constant source of amusement.

Bubby said...

In the real world, when you cut the lead in half its called a Surge.

But what should really worry Bob McDonnell is that Virginians now identify themselves as Liberal to Moderate (65%) and those people really don't share Bob's attitude toward women and religion.

Anonymous said...

A lead cut in half? As has been noted, the sample of the previous poll was 35R-32D...the one with the so-called "surge" was with a sample of 38D-31R. If you want a true comparison to indicate any "surge", you'd need similar samples. I mean, it stands to reason interviewing 6% more Democrats as well as 4% fewer Republicans is going to result in improved numbers for Deeds. In fact, I would've expected more of a "surge".

And, you continue to ignore the finding amongst indies, even in that poll. Its the same way nationwide...like it or not, Democrats are losing independents.

Toni D. said...

Whistle in the dark much anon?

Anonymous said...

Deeds will loose in Nov. but it won't be the first time he will have lost to Bob McDonnell.

Toni D. said...

"loose"?

Bubby said...

National independents? Who cares...

31% of the respondents to THIS poll called themselves independents, and 65% of all respondents are either liberal or moderate. And Bob McDonnell is...who knows, but he's not moderate.

Bubby said...

Yes, loose Toni: "Deed's Win Looses More Rightwing Lunacy".

Toni D. said...

The interesting thing is that this poll covers time that Taliban Bob's manifesto was just starting to get covered. Wait until this starts sinking in on people.

Then when it is followed up with the story about how disconnected he was from his staff in the AG's office he was, what with drug dealers and stalking wife abusers working for him, and, well, you've got till Saturday to find somebody.

Why don't you tell us your thoughts about how your candidate hates strong women and wants them to stay out of the workplace and just have babies and keep their mouth shut?

Anonymous said...

Toni D., if Obama can get away with sitting in the pews of the nasty, hate-filled Rev. Wright for 20 years and listening to the crap he peddled, surely Bob McDonnell can claim his views changed. I'm sure he won't interfere when you want to enjoy your girlfriend's company.

And Bubby, so what if 65% in the poll are either lib or moderate? You seem to believe those moderates will all lean left, which isn't the case at all. Ignore independents at the national level, but you can't believe that the trends at that level won't be somehow reflected at the state-level too. That poll cited indies in the STATE and the significant gap there...maybe it changes, but if not that's a problem for Deeds.

Anonymous said...

And THIS is why posting on a single poll that supposedly showed a Deeds surge was dumb: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4e0f2656-897c-4563-ad57-f90f052c9033

Anonymous said...

Republican=36%
Independent=33%
Democrat=29%

Conservatives=36%
Moderates=44%
Liberals=17%

Equal weight was given the four geographical areas which is not reflected in actual elections.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for proving my point about highlighting a single poll. You guys didn't seem to matter about the party ID background in the other one, because it told you something you wanted to hear. Thta sorta thing becomes important when the results don't seem right, no?